PNAS：禽流感病毒分布主“罪”不在鸡
一个针对最近三起H5N1禽流感爆发事件的研究模型显示，人类、鸭及稻米种植是决定禽流感分布状况的三大主要因素，相对而言，鸡的数量并不是那么重要。过去的研究均认为禽流感同鸡紧密相关。相关论文发表在美国《国家科学院院刊》（PNAS）上。
尽管禽流感病毒具有高度致病性，它鲜能在动物和人类之间进行传播。Marius Gilbert所在的研究小组就最近发生在泰国和越南的三起H5N1感染事件建立了模型。他们的研究为预测禽流感爆发的区域及如何将未来禽流感爆发风险降至最低提供了可能的方法。研究人员观察了不同因素在禽流感病毒分布中的作用，包括鸡、鸭、鹅的数量，人口大小、稻米种植密度和当地的地理情况等。其中，鸭的数量、人群及稻米种植表现出最为重要的作用，尽管这两国的禽流感爆发方式完全不同。研究人员表示，预测禽流感分布的最佳方法是监控感染H5N1的鸭群和通过卫星追踪稻米种植的状况。他们还表示，这一模型不仅可以应用于越南和泰国，对拥有类似土地使用模式的老挝和柬埔寨也同样适用。（来源：EurekAlert!中文版）
生物谷推荐原始出处：
（PNAS），doi：10.1073/pnas.0710581105，Marius Gilbert，Jan Slingenbergh
Mapping H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in Southeast Asia
*Biological Control and Spatial Ecology, Université Libre de Bruxelles, CP160/12, Avenue FD Roosevelt 50, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium; Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, 39 College Road, Durham, NH 03824; Epidemiology Division, Department of Veterinary Clinical Sciences, The Royal Veterinary College, University of London, London AL9 7TA, United Kingdom; ¶Swiss National Center of Competence in Research North–South, 3012 Berne, Switzerland; ||Department of Livestock Development, Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives, Bangkok 10400, Thailand; **Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Bangkok 10200, Thailand; Department of Animal Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Hanoi, Vietnam; and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, 00100 Rome, Italy
Edited by Rita R. Colwell, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, and approved February 7, 2008 (received for review November 9, 2007)
Abstract
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus. The abundance of domestic ducks, in particular free-grazing ducks feeding in intensive rice cropping areas, has been identified as one such risk factor based on separate studies carried out in Thailand and Vietnam. In addition, recent extensive progress was made in the spatial prediction of rice cropping intensity obtained through satellite imagery processing. This article analyses the statistical association between the recorded HPAI H5N1 virus presence and a set of five key environmental variables comprising elevation, human population, chicken numbers, duck numbers, and rice cropping intensity for three synchronous epidemic waves in Thailand and Vietnam. A consistent pattern emerges suggesting risk to be associated with duck abundance, human population, and rice cropping intensity in contrast to a relatively low association with chicken numbers. A statistical risk model based on the second epidemic wave data in Thailand is found to maintain its predictive power when extrapolated to Vietnam, which supports its application to other countries with similar agro-ecological conditions such as Laos or Cambodia. The model's potential application to mapping HPAI H5N1 disease risk in Indonesia is discussed.
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