PNAS：蝗灾暴发与温度呈显著负相关

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近日，中国科学院动物研究所的张知彬研究员与挪威奥斯陆大学Nils Stenseth等的一项合作研究表明：温度对东亚飞蝗暴发的生态学效应可能具有一定的周期或频率依赖性(Stige et al., 2007, PNAS)。该项合作研究对马世骏等(1958)发表的中国千年蝗灾资料进行了自回归和频谱分析，发现蝗灾发生程度与温度呈显著负相关，即蝗虫在冷期的发生量要显著地大于暖期，与过去的结论刚好相反。以前对近50年蝗灾数据的研究表明夏蝗发生程度与1月温度呈显著正相关(马世骏等，1965)。由于中国的历史气候总体上是冷干暖湿，因此可能的解释是：中国冷期干旱频次增加可使蝗灾的发生比暖期更为严重。旱涝，尤其是干旱，已被确认为东亚飞蝗大发生的关键因素(马世骏等，1958)。该发现的主要意义在于提示气候因子可能同时具有功效相反的高频(短周期)和低频(长周期)生态效应，需要在气候变化生态学研究中应当给予重视。继1999年陆续报道我国东亚飞蝗(Zhang and Li 1999, Ecological Research)、布氏田鼠(Zhang et al., 2003,Oikos)等大发生与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动现象有关之后，该项研究成果再次提示：大尺度气候变化可能对我国生物灾害的发生具有重要影响。

该项研究结果说明大尺度全球气候变暖对蝗灾的发生可能是不利的。但是由于人类增加温室气体排放所产生的气候变暖是否还遵循这一规律尚不清楚。气候变暖可能存在两种作用。一种是在短时间尺度上温度的直接作用，即气候变暖可能比较有利于蝗虫发生。另一种是大时间尺度上温度的间接作用，即气候变暖可能通过对旱涝的影响而发挥作用。但在当前气候变暖的情况下，我国东亚飞蝗主要分布区没有呈现出变湿的趋势；相反，在黄河、淮河、海河流域呈现了持续干旱的现象，这可能是近年来气候变暖背景下我国蝗灾没有减轻，反而有所加重的原因之一，但这种趋势最终如何发展，还要综合考察温度关联下未来水文条件的演变对我国蝗灾的影响。（动物研究所）

原始出处:

Published online before print September 18, 2007
Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 10.1073/pnas.0706813104

Thousand-year-long Chinese time series reveals climatic forcing of decadal locust dynamics

( agricultural pest | ecological response | frequency dependence | global warming | Locusta migratoria manilensis )

Leif Christian Stige *, Kung-Sik Chan ${dagger}$ , Zhibin Zhang ${ddagger}$ ${sect}$ , David Frank ¶, and Nils C. Stenseth * ${sect}$

*Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biology, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0316 Oslo, Norway; ${dagger}$ Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of Iowa, 263 Schaeffer Hall, Iowa City, IA 52242; ${ddagger}$ State Key Laboratory of Integrated Management of Pest Insects and Rodents in Agriculture, Institute of Zoology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tatun Road, Chao Yang District, Beijing 100101, People's Republic of China; and ¶Swiss Federal Research Institute for Forest, Snow, and Landscape Research, Zuercherstrasse 111, 8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland

Communicated by Hans R. Herren, Millennium Institute, Arlington, VA, July 20, 2007 (received for review March 16, 2007)

For >1,000 years, Chinese officials have recorded the annual abundance of the oriental migratory locust Locusta migratoria manilensis, with the ultimate aim of predicting locust outbreaks. Linking these records with temperature and precipitation reconstructions for the period 957-1956, we show that decadal mean locust abundance is highest during cold and wet periods. These periods coincide with above-average frequencies of both floods and droughts in the lower Yangtze River, phenomena that are associated with locust outbreaks. Our results imply differential ecological responses to interdecadal and interannual climatic variability. Such frequency-dependent effects deserve increased attention in global warming studies.

Author contributions: L.C.S. and N.C.S. designed research; L.C.S., K.-S.C., Z.Z., and D.F. performed research; L.C.S. and K.-S.C. analyzed data; and L.C.S., K.-S.C., Z.Z., D.F., and N.C.S. wrote the paper.

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

${sect}$ To whom correspondence may be addressed.

Zhibin Zhang, E-mail: zhangzb@ioz.ac.cn
Nils C. Stenseth, E-mail: n.c.stenseth@bio.uio.no

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